Severe Tropical Storm #NikaPH (TORAJI)
Issued at 5:00 AM, 10 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today.
“NIKA” INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AND IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
• Location of Center (4:00 AM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm NIKA was estimated based on all available data at 690 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.0°N, 128.1°E)
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 100 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 125 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
• Present Movement:
West northwestward at 30 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southeastern portion of Isabela (Dinapigue) and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southern portion of Cagaya (Tuguegarao City, Peñablanca, Enrile, Solana, Iguig), the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the southeastern portion of Kalinga (City of Tabuk, Rizal, Tanudan), the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Paracelis, Natonin, Barlig), Ifugao, the eastern portion of Pangasinan (San Nicolas, Tayug, Natividad, San Quintin, Umingan), the rest of Aurora, Nueva Ecija, the northeastern portion of Pampanga (Candaba, Arayat), the northern and eastern portions of Bulacan (Norzagaray, San Miguel, San Ildefonso, San Rafael, Doña Remedios Trinidad, Angat), the eastern portion of Quezon (Calauag, Guinayangan, Tagkawayan, Pitogo, San Andres, Buenavista, San Francisco, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, San Narciso, General Nakar) including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the northeastern portion of Albay (Malinao, Tiwi, Bacacay, City of Tabaco, Malilipot, Rapu-Rapu)
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 4 issued at 5:00 AM today for the heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone “NIKA”.
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of NIKA is Wind Signal No. 4.
Furthermore, the northeasterly wind flow will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
• Today (10 November): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte
• Tomorrow (11 November): Batanes, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes
• Tuesday (12 November): Batanes and Cagayan including Babuyan Islands
Coastal Inundation
There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, and Catanduanes. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 2 issued at 2:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Up to very rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.5 m: The eastern seaboards of Isabela and northern Aurora; the northern seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• Up to 3.5 m: The northern seaboard of Catanduanes
• Up to 3.0 m: The remaining seaboard of Aurora; the eastern seaboards of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, northern Quezon and Catanduanes
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The seaboards of Batanes and Ilocos Norte; the remaining seaboards of Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan; the eastern seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Sorsogon; the remaining seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Northern Samar.
• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards western and eastern seaboards of Luzon; the eastern seaboards of Eastern Visayas and Dinagat Islands
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• NIKA is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the track forecast, it may make landfall over Isabela or Aurora tomorrow (11 November) afternoon. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or within the forecast confidence cone.
• This tropical cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification and may reach typhoon category today. It may reach its peak intensity prior to landfall. A short period of weakening is expected as NIKA traverses the landmass of Luzon due to land interaction, but NIKA may slightly intensify over the West Philippine Sea but is expected to remain as a severe tropical storm throughout the rest of forecast period.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.#
