Super Typhoon #PepitoPH (MAN-YI)
Issued at 2:00 PM, 17 November 2024
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 5:00 PM today.
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION NOW PRESENT OVER AURORA AS SUPER TYPHOON “PEPITO” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AHEAD OF LANDFALL.
• Location of Center (1:00 PM)
The center of the eye of Super Typhoon PEPITO was estimated based on all available data including from Baler Weather Radar over the coastal waters of Baler, Aurora (15.6°N, 122.1°E).
• Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 935 hPa
• Present Movement
Northwestward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 5
• Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
• Warning lead time: 12 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 185 km/h or higher (Beaufort 12)
• Potential impacts of winds: Extreme threat to life and property
Luzon:
The central portion of Aurora (Dipaculao, Baler, Dinalungan, Maria Aurora, Casiguran, San Luis), the southern portion of Quirino (Nagtipunan), and the southern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Alfonso Castañeda)
TCWS No. 4
• Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds
• Warning lead time: 12 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)
• Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Aurora, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Quirino, the southern portion of Ifugao (Kiangan, Lamut, Tinoc, Asipulo, Lagawe), Benguet, the southern portion of Ilocos Sur (Alilem, Sugpon, Suyo, Santa Cruz, Tagudin), La Union, the eastern portion of Pangasinan (Sison, Tayug, Binalonan, San Manuel, Asingan, San Quintin, Santa Maria, Natividad, San Nicolas, Balungao, Pozorrubio, Laoac, San Jacinto, San Fabian, Manaoag, City of Urdaneta, Rosales, Umingan, Mangaldan, Mapandan, Villasis, Santo Tomas), the northern portion of Nueva Ecija (Gabaldon, Laur, Bongabon, Pantabangan, Rizal, General Mamerto Natividad, Lupao, San Jose City, Llanera, Carranglan, Science City of Muñoz, Talugtug, Cuyapo), and the northern and eastern portion of Polillo Islands (Panukulan, Burdeos, Patnanungan, and Jomalig)
TCWS No. 3
• Wind threat: Storm-force winds
• Warning lead time: 18 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
• Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
The southern portion of Isabela (San Agustin, Jones, Echague, San Guillermo, Angadanan, Alicia, San Mateo, Ramon, San Isidro, City of Santiago, Cordon, Dinapigue, Roxas, San Manuel, Aurora, Cabatuan, City of Cauayan, Luna), the rest of Ifugao, Mountain Province, the southern portion of Abra (Tubo, Luba, Pilar, Villaviciosa, San Isidro, Pidigan, Langiden, San Quintin, Bangued, Manabo), the rest of Ilocos Sur, the rest of Pangasinan, the northern and eastern portions of Tarlac (Paniqui, La Paz, Moncada, City of Tarlac, Gerona, Pura, San Clemente, Santa Ignacia, Victoria, Camiling, Concepcion, Ramos, San Manuel, Anao), the rest of Nueva Ecija, the northern portion of Bulacan (Doña Remedios Trinidad, San Miguel), and the northern portion of Quezon (Infanta, General Nakar) including the rest of Polillo Islands
TCWS No. 2
• Wind threat: Gale-force winds
• Warning lead time: 24 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of Isabela, the southwestern portion of mainland Cagayan (Enrile, Tuao, Solana, Tuguegarao City, Piat, Rizal), Kalinga, the southern portion of Apayao (Conner, Kabugao), the rest of Abra, Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Bataan, Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Cavite, Laguna, the central and eastern portions of Quezon (Pitogo, Buenavista, Lucena City, Calauag, Pagbilao, Tiaong, Lopez, Guinayangan, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, San Antonio, Alabat, Candelaria, Lucban, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Sariaya, City of Tayabas, Macalelon, Mauban, Dolores, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real, Tagkawayan), Camarines Norte, and the northwestern portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot)
TCWS No. 1
• Wind threat: Strong winds
• Warning lead time: 36 hours
• Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
• Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
The rest of mainland Cagayan, the rest of Apayao, Batangas, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Abra de Ilog, Paluan) including Lubang Islands, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro (Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Naujan, Baco, Victoria, Socorro, Pinamalayan, Gloria, Pola, City of Calapan), the northwestern portion of Romblon (Banton, Corcuera, Concepcion), Marinduque, the rest of Quezon, the rest of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, the northern portion of Sorsogon (Donsol, Pilar, Castilla, City of Sorsogon, Prieto Diaz), and Burias Island
OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
○ Heavy Rainfall Outlook
Refer to Weather Advisory No. 52 issued at 2:00 PM today for the heavy rainfall outlook associated with “PEPITO”.
○ Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
• Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.
• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.
• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
○ Coastal Inundation
There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Region (western coast), Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Marinduque, and Bicol Region. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 11 issued at 2:00 pM today for the details.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Gale Warning is hoisted over the eastern and western seaboards of Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 14A issued at 11:00 AM today for the details.
○ 24-Hour Sea Condition Outlook
Note: These are forecast sea condition over the coastal waters and not related to storm surge heights or inundation.
Up to very rough, high, or very high seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 14.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands; the seaboard of Aurora
• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Camarines Norte
• Up to 9.0 m: The seaboard of northern Quezon
• Up to 8.0 m: The seaboard of Isabela.
• Up to 7.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Catanduanes; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur
• Up to 5.0 m: The eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Camarines Sur, and Albay; the remaining seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes.
• Up to 4.5 m: The seaboards of Sorsogon and Northern Samar; the eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar; the remaining seaboards of Camarines Sur, Albay, and Quezon; the seaboards of Ilocos Region, Masbate including Burias and Ticao Islands, and Marinduque
• Sea travel is risky for all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.
Up to rough seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 4.0 m: The seaboards of Batanes, northern Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Zambales
• Up to 3.0 m: The seaboards of Romblon; the remaining seaboards of Zambales; the eastern seaboard of Oriental Mindoro
• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.
Up to moderate seas over the following coastal waters:
• Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboard of Bataan; the eastern seaboard of Dinagat Islands
• Up to 2.0 m: The seaboards of Metro Manila, Aklan, Antique, northeastern Iloilo, northern Negros Occidental, northern Cebu including Bantayan Islands, and Biliran; the northern and eastern seaboards of Leyte; the eastern seaboards of Southern Leyte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental; the northern and western seaboards of Dinagat Islands; the remaining seaboards of Bataan and CALABARZON; the northern seaboards of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands and Oriental Mindoro.
• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• PEPITO will move generally west northwestward or northwestward and is forecast to make landfall in the vicinity of Aurora between 2:00 PM and 5:00 PM today. Afterwards, it will cross the northern portion of Central Luzon and the southern portion of Northern Luzon via the upland regions of the Sierra Madre, Caraballo, and Cordillera Central between this afternoon and evening. PEPITO is forecast to exit the landmass of Luzon tonight or tomorrow early morning (18 November).
• Over the West Philippine Sea, PEPITO will continue moving generally west northwestward tomorrow. It may exit the PAR region tomorrow morning or noon. Outside the PAR region, the tropical cyclone will turn more westward or west southwestward on Tuesday (19 November) under the influence of an incoming northeasterly wind surge.
• It must be emphasized that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Refer to “Other Hazards affecting Land Areas” for more details. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
• PEPITO will make landfall as super typhoon. Significant weakening will occur during the passage of this tropical cyclone over mainland Luzon today. Further weakening will also occur as PEPITO moves over the West Philippine Sea due to the incoming northeasterly wind surge.#
