TYPHOON “KIKO” SLIGHTLY WEAKENS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA EAST OF SOUTHERN ISABELA
Location of Center (4:00 AM)
The center of the eye of Typhoon “KIKO” was located based on all available data including those from Daet Doppler Weather Radar at 280 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (16.8°N, 124.7°E).
Intensity Maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 230 km/h, and central pressure of 935 hPa.
Present MovementWest Northwestward at 20 km/h. Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds Strong winds or higher extend outwards up to 230 km from the center TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT.
TCWS No. #3(Destructive typhoon-force winds prevailing or expected within 18 hours)The extreme northeastern portion of Cagayan (Santa Ana)
TCWS No. #2(Damaging gale-force to storm-force winds prevailing or expected within 24 hours)- LuzonBatanes, Babuyan Islands, the remaining eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Aparri, Camalaniugan, Lal-Lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Buguey, Santa Teresita, Gonzaga) and the northeastern portion of Isabela (San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan)
TCWS No. #1(Strong winds prevailing or expected within 36 hours) The rest of mainland Cagayan, the northeastern portion of Ilocos Norte (Pagudpud, Adams, Dumalneg, Bangui, Vintar, Carasi), Apayao, the eastern portion of Kalinga (City of Tabuk, Pinukpuk, Rizal), the northwestern and southeastern portions of Isabela (Santa Maria, Quezon, Mallig, Roxas, San Manuel, Cabatuan, Aurora, City of Cauayan, Angadanan, San Guillermo, Dinapigue, San Mariano, Cabagan, Santo Tomas, Delfin Albano, Tumauini, Quirino, Burgos, Gamu, Ilagan City, Luna, Reina Mercedes, Naguilian, Benito Soliven), and the northern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran)
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• This afternoon through tomorrow evening, heavy to intense with at times torrential rains due to the typhoon may be experienced over Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Batanes, and northern Isabela. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains may be experienced over Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and central Aurora, and the rest of Cagayan Valley. Under these conditions, scattered to widespread flooding (including flash floods) and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps.
• Severe Tropical Storm “JOLINA” and Typhoon “KIKO” will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon, bringing monsoon rains over the western sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next 24 hours. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #3 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast at 4:00 AM today.
Severe Winds
• Winds may reach typhoon-force winds in strength within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #3 is hoisted during the passage of the typhoon. This may cause generally moderate to heavy damage to structures and vegetation.
• Winds may reach gale to storm force in strength within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal #2 is in effect. This may result to light to moderate damage to structures and vegetation.
• Winds reaching strong breeze to near gale in strength (i.e., strong winds) will be felt within any of the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) #1 is in effect. This may result to up to very light damage to structures and vegetation.
• It must be noted that as the typhoon progresses towards Extreme Northern Luzon, higher wind signals will be hoisted in some localities within Northern Luzon. Based on the latest track and intensity forecast, TCWS #4 remains the highest wind signal that will be hoisted for this typhoon.
• The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will bring occasional gusts reaching strong breeze to near gale in strength over the coastal and upland/mountain areas of the western sections of Central Luzon, Southern Luzon, and Visayas in the next 24 hours. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #3 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 PM yesterday.
Coastal Inundation
A moderate risk of storm surge reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m in height may occur in the next 24 hours. Rising sea water along with the high waves from the shoreline moving inland may cause flooding in the low-lying coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #1 for Typhoon “KIKO” issued at 5:00 AM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
• In the next 24 hours, rough to very high seas (2.5 to 10.0 m) will be experienced over the seaboards of areas where TCWS is in effect. Sea travel is risky for all types of sea vessels. Mariners are advised to remain in port or take shelter in port until winds and waves subside.
• Moderate to rough seas (1.2 to 3.0 m) will be experienced over the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon. Sea travel is risky for those using small sea crafts. Mariners are advised to take precautionary measures when venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigating in these conditions.
• Due to the typhoon enhancing the Southwest Monsoon, a Gale Warning is currently in effect for the western seaboards of Palawan including Calamian and Kalayaan Islands and Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 issued at 5:00 AM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Typhoon “KIKO” is forecast to move generally northwestward or north northwestward towards the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area. On the forecast track, the typhoon is forecast to pass over the coastal waters of northeastern Cagayan this afternoon or evening. Afterwards, the typhoon may cross the vicinity of Babuyan Islands and Batanes or pass within their coastal waters tonight through tomorrow afternoon or evening.
• The possibility of landfall over the northeastern portion of Cagayan is not yet ruled out. As such, the public is advised to continue monitoring for possible changes in the track forecast in the succeeding bulletins.
• After passing in the vicinity of Extreme Northern Luzon, “KIKO” is forecast to move northward for the remainder of tomorrow through Sunday afternoon and may make landfall in the vicinity of eastern Taiwan or pass within its coastal waters. The typhoon is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Sunday afternoon or evening. Outside the PAR, the typhoon will turn north northeastward over the East China Sea.
• Typhoon “KIKO” is forecast to maintain that intensity until it moves past Extreme Northern Luzon. Further weakening will begin on Sunday as the typhoon begins to interact with the rugged terrain of Taiwan but will remain within typhoon category throughout the forecast period.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.
DOST-PAGASA
